Air Cargo Transport: 2025 Trends and 2040 Outlook
Air Cargo Transport: 2025 Trends and 2040 Outlook
BDO is releasing its latest sector analysis dedicated to the air cargo market. In a context of global logistics restructuring, our report highlights the key developments observed in 2025, geographic dynamics, environmental challenges, and growth prospects looking ahead to 2040.
2025: A Record Year for Air Cargo
In 2025, air cargo reached 130 Mt transported (+3%), representing 33% of the value of global trade while accounting for only 1% of total volume. Growth is driven by e‑commerce, which has doubled in the past five years, and the rise of express freight, which is expected to reach 25% of the all‑cargo segment (in tonne‑kilometres) in the coming years.
France: A Strategic but Pressured Market
In France, air cargo is growing at a slower pace than the global market, remaining 5% below pre‑COVID levels in 2024. From and to France, trade flows are dominated by Europe (37%), followed by Asia-Pacific, where China accounts for 42% of regional exchanges. The Middle East is the only region showing steady growth in its connections with France, posting an average increase of +2.3% per year over the past decade.
2040 Outlook: A Market Set to Nearly Double
Projections indicate an average annual growth of around +3% by 2040. Asia-Pacific is expected to surpass 80 Mt, in inbound and outbound freight, confirming its position as the world’s leading air cargo market. The expansion of express freight and the growth of cargo fleets (+45% expected) will further support this momentum.