Impact of the Middle East Conflict on Air Transport

The Middle East conflict is sending shockwaves through global air traffic. Three weeks into the hostilities, capacity out of the region has dropped 50% compared to 2025, jet fuel prices have doubled, and major international carriers are urgently rerouting their networks.

BDO takes stock of the scale of the disruption and its implications for industry players.

Gulf hubs are bearing the brunt: Doha is down 85% and Dubai 65% versus last year's levels. Intra-regional routes, flows to Europe and connections to Asia are all severely impaired. Qatar Airways, Emirates, Etihad and European carriers have sharply curtailed their operations in the area.

Beyond the regional shock, energy costs are the overriding concern. The doubling of jet fuel prices in under a month represents a structural blow to the entire industry: with fuel accounting for roughly 25% of operating costs, airfare increases in the range of +10% are already anticipated for March–April 2026.

The duration of the conflict remains the key variable: a return to normal before the end of April would contain the damage; a prolonged crisis would raise the risk of stagflation for the global economy, with serious consequences for the competitiveness of European aviation.

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