Global air transport outlook to 2045
Global air transport outlook to 2045
Global air traffic growth remains closely correlated with GDP growth. Despite an anticipated slowdown in annual global GDP growth - from 4.7% in 2024 to 2.1% in 2045 - the momentum remains strong, with an average of 3.1% over the period.
Growth in air transport is being driven mainly by emerging markets, particularly Africa, which displays the strongest regional growth, although its global economic weight remains limited. Asia-Pacific will become the leading region in terms of market share by 2045, to the detriment of North America, whose share will fall from 23% to 15%. The market shares of Africa, South America and the Middle East will remain stable, while the mature markets of Europe and North America will see their growth slow down.
In 2024, global traffic reached 4.7 billion passengers (+8% in 2023), exceeding the 2019 level. Projections estimate 5 billion passengers in 2025 and more than 8 billion in 2040. This growth is taking place during a structural change in the sector, stroke by the rise of videoconferencing, post-COVID trade-offs and the imperatives of ecological transition. Specific initiatives such as investments in biofuels and the development of zero-carbon aircraft are initiating structural changes in the development of tomorrow's aviation.
Regional trends will emerge, particularly in the major Asian countries, China and India, which stand out for their strong growth in passenger numbers by 2045. They will benefit from a strong dynamic in air traffic flows towards the Asian continent, but also from a strong internal dynamic.
Finally, the low-cost business model will prevail in Europe, while the full-service model will remain dominant in the other regions. In addition, Western travelers maintain the highest frequency of trips per capita.